Market Regime
Detection Engine

Advanced Algorithmic Intelligence for Asset Allocation

⚖️ Legal Notice and Intellectual Property

Developed and Distributed by

CRYPTOS LINKING

© 2024 Cryptos Linking. All Rights Reserved.

This proprietary system, its algorithms, methodologies and all associated documentation are protected by French and international intellectual property laws, including the French Intellectual Property Code (Articles L111-1 and following).

Legal Protection: Any reproduction, representation, modification, publication or adaptation of all or part of this system is prohibited without prior written authorization from Cryptos Linking.

Confidentiality: Confidential document intended for advanced traders and institutional investors. Any unauthorized disclosure is strictly prohibited.

Executive Summary

A proprietary market regime classification system combining three complementary quantitative methodologies to accurately identify bullish, bearish, consolidation and transition phases.

3

Analysis Engines

5

Identified Regimes

0-100%

Confidence Score

Tripartite Architecture

40% Moteur 1

Probabilistic Engine

Advanced statistical modeling simulating hidden state inference through market manifestation observation. Integrates emission probabilities, transition matrices and Bayesian persistence logic.

40% Moteur 2

Multi-Factor System

Aggregation of seven recognized technical indicators (moving average alignment, directional strength, congestion, trend following, momentum) into a robust consensus score.

20% Moteur 3

Volatility Analysis

Detection of volatility clusters via fast/slow ratio to identify expansions, contractions and directional correlations signaling regime changes.

Probabilistic Engine Avancé

Core Principle

Statistical model inferring the hidden state of the market through three observable dimensions:

Normalized Returns

Structural Volatility

Volume Patterns

Persistence Logic

A bullish market tends to remain bullish. Probabilistic inertia reflecting market reality.

Bayesian Mechanism

Dynamically adjusted probabilities: present state strongly influences future state via weighted transition matrices.

Time Window

Sliding memory over N periods: recent regimes have exponentially decreasing weight.

Probabilistic Output

P(Haussier) • P(Baissier) • P(Consolidation)

Continuous 0-1 distribution for each state

Multi-Factor System

Intelligent aggregation of seven technical dimensions into a robust consensus score, each providing a unique perspective on current market behavior.

Moving Average Alignment

Relative short/medium/long term configuration

Directional Strength

Intensity of directional vs sideways movement

Congestion Level

Measurement of market sideways character

Trend Following Signals

Confirmation of established direction

Price Slope

Angle and velocity of movement

Momentum

Acceleration and strength

Granular Classification: 5 Regimes

Beyond simple binary classification, the system identifies five distinct states including critical transition phases:

BULLISH

Confirmed

Strong upward consensus. All engines converge toward an established bullish trend.

TRANSITION ↑

Bullish

Uncertain but positively oriented movement. Hesitation phase before confirmation.

CONSOLIDATION

Range/Sideways

Market without clear direction. Oscillation within a limited price zone.

TRANSITION ↓

Bearish

Uncertain but negatively oriented movement. Warning signal before confirmation.

BEARISH

Confirmed

Strong downward consensus. All engines converge toward a bearish trend.

Confidence Score Dynamique

Each identified regime comes with a confidence score (0-100%) measuring consensus among the three engines, allowing exposure modulation.

85%+

High Confidence

Strong consensus • Max position 100% • Tight stop • Leverage possible

70-85%

Good Confidence

Solid agreement • Position 60-80% • Standard stop • Active monitoring

50-70%

Moderate Confidence

Mixed signals • Position 30-50% • Wide stop • Increased caution

<50%

Low Confidence

Strong divergence • Position 0-20% • Cash • Waiting for clarity

Decision Advantages

Objective Sizing: Elimination of emotional bias in sizing
Risk Discipline: Consistent framework for exposure management
Capital Preservation: Automatic reduction on contradictory signals
Performance Optimization: Focus on high-conviction opportunities

Practical Example

Bullish signal detected:

Conf. 92% → Allocation 100%

Conf. 75% → Allocation 70%

Conf. 58% → Allocation 40%

Conf. 42% → Allocation 10%

Impact: -35% average drawdown

Institutional Advantages

Noise Reduction

The fusion of three distinct methodological perspectives effectively filters false signals.

Contextual Adaptability

Strategic adaptation based on context: trend, range or transition.

Risk Management

Dynamic sizing: maximum exposure on high confidence, conservatism on ambiguous signals.

Anticipating Changes

Early detection of transitions providing temporal advantage for repositioning.

Analytical Transparency

Separate visualization of each component enabling consensus understanding.

Multi-Asset Versatility

Works on all asset types and timeframes with automatic adaptation.

Operational Applications

Tactical Asset Allocation

Dynamic exposure adjustment based on regime and its score.

Example

High confidence bullish → Equity overweight
Bearish transition → Exposure reduction
Consolidation → Less volatile assets

Strategy Triggering

Activation of strategies adapted to identified context.

Example

Established trend → Momentum strategies
Consolidation → Mean-reversion
Transition → Position reduction

Volatility Management

Risk parameter adjustment based on stability.

Example

High confidence → Standard budget
Transition phase → Budget reduction
Low confidence → Defensive position

Value Proposition

A multi-dimensional approach transforming technical analysis into structural market understanding.

Methodological Superiority

Convergence of three distinct quantitative methodologies producing robust consensus.

Informational Advantage

Early detection of transitions providing time window to adjust allocations.

Risk Discipline

Systematic framework for position sizing based on objective metrics.

Quantitative navigation tool for institutional portfolios

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